Dragon Tiger Strategy: What the Numbers Say

House edge of every bet

Over time you lose about 3.73 of every 100 units bet on Dragon or Tiger. On the Tie at 11:1 you lose about 10.4. That makes the Tie almost three times as expensive.

Why the Tie bet is a trap

An 11:1 payout looks generous, but a tie comes up only about once in 13 rounds. To break even it would have to pay about 12.4 to 1. Tables that pay only 8:1 on a Tie are worse still: the house edge there is over 32%.

Does card counting work?

In theory, yes, a little. When many low cards have left the shoe, the remaining cards shift the odds. In practice the effect in an 8-deck shoe is tiny, live tables shuffle long before the end, and you would need to track hundreds of cards. For a normal player counting does not beat the house edge.

Patterns and streaks

Scoreboards on live tables show the last results, and many players follow "streaks". The shoe has no memory: after five Dragon wins in a row, the next round is still 46.3% Dragon and 46.3% Tiger. Streaks feel meaningful but they are normal: five wins in a row for one side happens about once every 47 rounds.

Bankroll rules

• Bet on Dragon or Tiger. Leave the Tie and Suited Tie as rare small extras or skip them.
• Set a budget for the session and stop when it is gone.
• A round takes under 30 seconds, so 100 rounds go by in less than an hour. Decide in advance how many rounds you will play.
• Do not double your bet after a loss. Long losing runs come and they end doubling systems.

Questions and answers